To conclude the first term of this academic year, the Institute’s Future Of… Centenary Speaker Series welcomed Professor Pushan Dutt to discuss the future of Asia from both economic and geopolitical perspectives. Professor Dutt, a Professor of Economics and Political Science at INSEAD Business School, holds a PhD in Economics from New York University. He specialises in the intersection of economic development and politics, with a particular focus on exploring inequality through various analytical lenses. 

Professor Dutt began his discussion by analysing key metrics related to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), such as GDP per capita and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which uses a common unit to compare prices across countries. He further demonstrated the world’s ’economic centre of gravity’, illustrating its gradual shift from the West to the East whilst highlighting the increasing economic power of Asian countries - predominantly China. Professor Dutt emphasised the importance of sustained productivity in a nation’s economy and suggested ways to improve the management of resources within an economy to maximise output. One issue Professor Dutt highlighted was female workforce participation and the role of micro-loans in developing countries as incentives to increase their participation and address other challenges, such as child labour in Brazil. In the latter case, he pointed out that the most effective strategy for reducing child labour was directly paying parents to send their children to school. While the focus of the talk was centred around Asia, Professor Dutt provided the audience with a holistic perspective on the global economy, allowing them to compare the situations of different economies at a certain point in time. 

According to Professor Dutt, a clear comparison of the future of Asia and other nations can be drawn between the two global superpowers: the USA and China. He analysed various aspects of both countries, each offering a different interpretation of their respective power. For instance, while China leads in generating innovation, the United States surpasses China in forming alliances across industries and diffusing these products globally. 

Professor Dutt also highlighted the growing friction between the US and China, attributing it to their competition for dominance in the 'next shift in technology,' particularly in the semiconductor industry. The tension between the two superpowers will play a significant role in shaping the future. He explained the Thucydides Trap, which suggests that when the power of an established hegemon (the US) is threatened by a rising power (China), there is a heightened risk of conflict. He concluded his talk by stating that we are entering a multipolar, protectionist, and nationalist world, marking a sharp contrast to today's global dynamics. 

One of the most surprising insights Professor Dutt shared was that South Korea was the fastest-growing economy from 1950 to 2020 and that nearly all the fastest-growing economies were in Asia—except for Botswana, whose growth was driven by diamond exports. This highlighted the significant power that Asia, not just China, holds in the global economy. The long-term growth trends suggest that Asia will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the future global landscape. 

Everyone who attended this talk left with a deeper, more nuanced understanding of the world we live in today and the increasingly prevalent role that Asia has played in recent years. Whether one is an aspiring economist or a future policy maker, this talk made everyone consider the world in more varied and greater detail. Thank you to Professor Dutt for coming to talk to members of the Tanglin community and Ms Brandon-King for organising this event! For upcoming Institute events, please visit the Institute's official website. 

Aavienda C.
Year 12 Student